Background

Namibia is currently in the middle of its presidential election, preparing for the selection of the late President Hage Geingob’s successor. The two leading candidates are Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, who currently serves as the Vice-President of Namibia and was chosen as SWAPO’s presidential nominee last year, and Panduleni Itula, a former SWAPO member who was ousted from the party when he led the minority opposition against President Geingob in the 2019 presidential election. Although SWAPO popular support has seen significant deterioration from its original, near-unanimous control in the ’90s, Itula was only able to secure around 30% of the 2019 popular vote. Most election analysts project a continuation of SWAPO rule under Ndaitwah, despite a slight projected decrease in SWAPO support. Namibia currently suffers from one of the world’s largest unemployment rates at around 20% and has had recent struggles with corruption. Many Namibians associate these issues with SWAPO rule, but alternative candidates still struggle to propose acceptable alternative policies or unite against the current majority party.

Since her assumption of the Ministerialship of International Relations and Cooperation, Ndaitwah has shown preferential treatment towards the Chinese over the United States and other Western entities, thus setting the tone for increased bilateral business and investment. This includes annual visits to Beijing, frequent encouragement of Chinese aid in her speeches, and a mass influx of Chinese development aid both before and after Namibia’s joining of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2018. While discussions regarding Sino-Namibian bilateral economic aid predate Ndaitwah's rise to the Ministerialship, the increased frequency of such meetings correlates directly with Ndaitwah's ascension in 2012. These began with Ndaitwah’s first meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in September 2013, where Chinese advancement of infrastructural development in Namibia was addressed.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China “Foreign Minister Wang Yi Meets with Foreign Minister Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah of Namibia” September 24, 2013, Accessed May 13, 2024 https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/gjhdq_665435/2913_665441/3049_664124/3051_664128/201309/t20130925_545487.html^[1] The meeting drew from Namibian calls for an economic "Second Revolution," culminating in what eventually became Yi's rallying cry for Namibian investment.Namibia National Assembly 'Minutes' April 14, 2011 https://www.lac.org.na/laws/hansards/Volume_133.pdf^[2] Ndaitwah recognized that "China and Namibia enjoy a profound traditional friendship," a theme she frequently cites, referring back to Chinese aid rendered to the Namibian independence movement. The 2013 discussion paved the way for Xi Jinping’s first in-person meeting with then-Prime Minister Geingob eight months later in Beijing where development of Chinese mining and infrastructure was discussed.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China “Xi Jinping Meets with Prime Minister Hage Geingob of Namibia” April 8, 2014, Accessed May 13, 2024 https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/gjhdq_665435/2913_665441/3049_664124/3051_664128/201404/t20140410_545492.html^[3] A day later, Prime Minister Geingob met with other Chinese officials to discuss Namibian legislation to protect increases in Chinese investment in Namibia.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China “Li Keqiang Holds Talks with Prime Minister Hage Geingob of Namibia, Promoting China-Namibia Relations and China-Africa Relations for Greater Development” April 9, 2014, Accessed May 13, 2024 https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/gjhdq_665435/2913_665441/3049_664124/3051_664128/201404/t20140410_545497.html^[4] The following year, the Chinese sent a special envoy to Geingob’s inauguration as President, and helped the Geingob-Ndaitwah partnership with the CCP expand further.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China “Special Envoy of President Xi Jinping Yang Chuantang Attends Inauguration Ceremony of Namibian President” March 23, 2015, Accessed May 13, 2024 https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/gjhdq_665435/2913_665441/3049_664124/3051_664128/201503/t20150325_545500.html^[5] In 2016, Wang Yi visited President Geingob, and agreed to Namibia’s proposed bilateral development of Xi Jinping’s Ten Cooperation Plans proposed to the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), including “port-neighboring industrial parks” and mining infrastructure.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China “President Hage Geingob of Namibia Meets with Wang Yi” February 6, 2016, Accessed May 13, 2024 https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/gjhdq_665435/2913_665441/3049_664124/3051_664128/201602/t20160215_545511.html^[6] The same day, February 5th, 2016, Wang Yi met with Ndaitwah to address the initiation of those plans and catalyze the “Second Revolution” of Namibian economic independence aided by China.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China “Wang Yi: Convert Ten Major China-Africa Cooperation Plans to Concrete Actions in China-Namibia Cooperation” February 6, 2016, Accessed May 13, 2024 https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/gjhdq_665435/2913_665441/3049_664124/3051_664128/201602/t20160215_545514.html^[7] In the meeting, Ndaitwah referred to China as "a true, trusted and reliable friend of the people of Namibia", again referencing China's support for the SWAPO-ruled Namibia since its inception.Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah 'STATEMENT BY HON. NETUMBO NANDI NDAITWAH ON THE OCCASION OF BILATERAL TALKS WITH H.E. MR WANG YI, MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF CHINA, 5 FEBRUARY 2015, 4TH FLOOR, MIRCO HEADQUARTERS, WINDHOEK' United Nations, New York City https://www.un.int/namibia/sites/www.un.int/files/Namibia/Documents/Forms/a/statement_china_feb_5_2015.pdf^[8] In 2017, Ndaitwah visited Beijing for the first time as Foreign Minister.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China “Yang Jiechi Meets with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah of Namibia” April 12, 2017, Accessed May 13, 2024 https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/gjhdq_665435/2913_665441/3049_664124/3051_664128/201704/t20170414_545524.html^[9] During this visit, Ndaitwah and Yi reaffirmed commitment to goals set the previous year.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China “Wang Yi Holds Talks with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah of Namibia” April 12, 2017, Accessed May 13, 2024 https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/gjhdq_665435/2913_665441/3049_664124/3051_664128/201704/t20170414_545526.html^[10] Ndaitwah praised the Chinese as "true friend[s] of developing countries." The same occurred between the two at the United Nations summit in New York in September of that year.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China “Wang Yi Meets with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah of Namibia” September 20, 2017, Accessed May 13, 2024 https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/gjhdq_665435/2913_665441/3049_664124/3051_664128/201709/t20170922_545529.html^[11] Just six months later, Ndaitwah made a second visit to Beijing to meet with Yi and facilitated a new visit by President Geingob, as well as discussed the further development of Sino-Namibian ties.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China “Wang Yi Meets with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah of Namibia” March 28, 2018, Accessed May 13, 2024 https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/gjhdq_665435/2913_665441/3049_664124/3051_664128/201803/t20180330_545535.html^[12] The next day, under Ndaitwah’s supervision, the China-Namibia Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership was agreed to by Presidents Geingob and Xi Jinping in Beijing, officially entering Namibia into the BRI.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China “Xi Jinping Holds Talks with President Hage Geingob of Namibia - The Two Heads of State Jointly Agree to Establish China-Namibia Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership” March 29, 2018, Accessed May 13, 2024 https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/gjhdq_665435/2913_665441/3049_664124/3051_664128/201804/t20180402_545538.html^[13] Since that point, Ndaitwah has overseen the fulfillment of these bilateral agreements in the form of rapid industrial development in Namibia. The most recent is the inauguration of Sino-funded community farms in May 2024, known as the Harambee O-yetu Project.African Business 'Namibia: Ambassador Zhao Weiping and Vice President Ndaitwah jointly attend the inauguration of the Harambee O-yetu Project' London, May 25, 2024 https://african.business/2024/05/apo-newsfeed/namibia-ambassador-zhao-weiping-and-vice-president-ndaitwah-jointly-attend-the-inauguration-of-the-harambee-o-yetu-project^[14] Ndaitwah's participation in the event is just the latest as she operates in her new role as head of the party and incoming President. These developments continue today.

GEOINT Survey of Sites

The following imagery depicts Chinese construction projects across Namibia developed under Ndaitwah’s supervision as Foreign Minister from 2012 to January 2024. Many of these construction projects continue today, and will likely continue and expand under her anticipated administration. Major, multi-million dollar projects predominantly fall under the following categories; roadwork, ports, mines, military infrastructure, and government buildings. This section will provide a case example for each category and a list of other related projects for further research.

Roadwork

Trunk Road (TR) 9/1 or Highway from Windhoek to Hosea Kutako International Airport

In December 2015, China Railway Engineering Seventh Bureau and a Namibian company, Onamagongwa Trading Enterprises (OTE), won a joint contract from the Namibian government to pave a new 45km route between Windhoek and the Hosea Kutako International Airport.Shinovene Immanuel 'Chinese firm dumps local partner' The Namibian, Windhoek, December 19, 2019 https://www.namibian.com.na/chinese-firm-dumps-local-partner/^[15] On December 16th, 2015, ground was broken for the first 8.4 kilometer phase of the project. Friction between the partnering enterprises delayed the project, but in 2017 the Namibians and Chinese signed an Economic and Technical Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) granting a seed fund of RMB 200 million (NAD 400 million).AidData 'Project ID: 60979 - Chinese Government provides RMB 200 million grant — via August 2017 ETCA — for Phase 1 of Windhoek to Hosea Kutako International Airport Road Project (Linked to Project ID#60977, #92520, #60980)' William & Mary University, Virginia, Accessed July 8, 2024 https://china.aiddata.org/projects/60979/^[16] Phase 2A of the highway has been funded by a grant from African Development Bank Group, and Phase 2B, the final phase, is funded by a grant from the China Eximbank.AidData 'Project ID: 60977 - China Eximbank pledges financial support for Phase 2B of Road from Dordabis Interchange to Hosea Kutako International Airport (Linked to Project ID#60979, #60980)' William & Mary University, Virginia, Accessed July 8, 2024 https://china.aiddata.org/projects/60977/ | Chriselle Moraes 'Second Phase of Namibia Airport Road Construction Project Commences' Construct Africa, Abu Dhabi, June 28, 2022 https://constructafrica.com/news/second-phase-namibia-airport-road-construction-project-commences | Mandisa Rasmeni 'Namibia Solidifies Intent to be Logistics Gateway - Third and Last Section of the Windhoek to HKIA Road Gets Off the Ground' The Economist: Namibia, Windhoek, November 27, 2023 https://economist.com.na/84508/wheels-wings/windhoek-hosea-kutako-international-airport-road-phase-2b-halfway-complete/?utm_source=Dlvrit&utm_medium=linksreferral&utm_campaign=socialmedialinksLinkedIn&utm_id=G-4BCRPBFTLT&utm_term=Facilit8%20Namibia^[17] Currently, the Chinese, through Zhongmei Engineering Group Ltd., alongside SMEC (formerly VKE Namibia), an Aussie-Namibian consulting group, are finishing the paving of Phase 2B of the highway, anticipated to be completed next year.African Development Bank Group 'Contract Awards - Namibia - Construction of TR9/1 from Windhoek to Hosea Kutako International Airport to Dual Carriage Freeway Standards: Phase 2A (Sam Nujoma Interchange to Dordabis Interchange, 19.5 KM) Auxiliary Works LOT1 - TIIP' ADBG, August 26. 2021, Accessed July 5, 2024 https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/contract-awards-namibia-construction-tr9/1-windhoek-hosea-kutako-international-airport-dual-carriage-freeway-standards-phase-2a-sam-nujoma-interchange-dordabis-interchange-195-km-auxiliary-works-lot1-tiip | SMEC 'Construction of Freeway TR9/1' Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation (SMEC) Group, Melbourne, Accessed July 5, 2024 https://www.smec.com/project/construction-of-freeway-tr9-1-windhoek-hosea-kutako-international-airport/ | Xinhua 'China-aided infrastructure project boosts Namibia's gateway position' Xinhua News, Beijing, May 10, 2022, Accessed July 2, 2024 https://english.news.cn/africa/20220510/2325f483f3eb4e439d3fa50e04490852/c.html^[18] Phase 2A is also nearing parallel completion.NBC Online 'WIndhoek-Hosea Katuko International Airport Phase One Extension Opens' Namibia Broadcasting Corporation, Windhoek, June 2023 https://nbcnews.na/index.php/node/102120 | New Era Live 'Airport Road Construction Faces Delays' New Era, Windhoek, December 4, 2023 https://neweralive.na/airport-road-construction-faces-delays/^[19]

Ports

Walvis Bay

Although fewer examples exist of Sino-developed portage in Namibia, the development of Walvis Bay is asymmetrically significant. Following back and forth deliberation from 2007 onward regarding funding for the expansion of Walvis Bay's container terminal, the Namibians opted for an African Development Bank loan of $300 million over an offer of $100 million in preferential buyers credit from China Eximbank.ADBG 'Namibia: Walvis Bay Port expansion well under way' African Development Bank Group, October 5, 2018 https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/namibia-walvis-bay-port-expansion-well-under-way-18550 | AidData 'Project ID: 1235 - China Eximbank offers $100 million preferential buyer’s credit for Walvis Bay Port Expansion Project (Linked to Umbrella Project #62351)' William & Mary University, Virginia, Accessed July 5, 2024 https://china.aiddata.org/projects/1235/^[20] However, China Harbor Engineering Co (CHEC) was selected as contractor, with construction commencing in 2014. The expansion was completed August 2019, increasing Walvis Bay's container handling capacity from 350,000 containers to 750,000 per year.Ship Technology 'Port of Walvis Bay’s New Container Terminal' Ship Technology, New York City, September 16, 2019 https://www.ship-technology.com/projects/port-walvis-bays-new-container-terminal/^[21] Increased Chinese presence at the port coincided with a leaked letter to the Namibians regarding intentions to develop a Chinese naval base at Walvis Bay.Felix Njini 'China Looks at Walvis Bay Naval Base, Namibian Reports' Bloomberg, New York City, January 21, 2015 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-20/china-considers-building-namibia-naval-base-namibian-reports?embedded-checkout=true | Joshua Philipp 'China May Build a Naval Base in the South Atlantic' Epoch Times, New York City, March 29, 2015 https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/china-may-build-a-naval-base-in-the-south-atlantic-1302175?welcomeuser=1^[22] This initiative has not materialized, but exposes intention and potential capacity for a physical Chinese military presence at the western gateway to the Cape of Good Hope SLOC. The port is also just under 40 km south of the 2001-built China Telemetry, Tracking and Command Station just northeast of Swakopmund. This site allows the Chinese enhanced tracking capabilities of spacecraft in the southern hemisphere, and is ideally positioned to track their reentry.Wang Zefei 'China-Namibia dream shines in space' Global Times, Beijing, October 14, 2021 https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1236295.shtml | AidData 'Project ID: 1336 - Chinese Government funds Space Tracking, Telemetry and Command Station Construction Project (Linked to project #62304)' William & Mary University, Virginia, Accessed July 5, 2024 https://china.aiddata.org/projects/1336/^[23] Consolidation of the two strategic sites makes Walvis Bay an attractive hub for Chinese investment.

Mines

Husab Uranium Mine

Namibia hosts rich critical mineral deposits. Of these, the Chinese have invested heavily in Namibian uranium. The largest of these investments is the Husab (Hushan) Uranium Mine Development Project. In 2006, Australian company Extract Resources developed Swakop Uranium to explore and develop uranium acquisition prospects at Husab, located northeast of Swakopmund and 45km from Walvis Bay. Five years later, Swakop Uranium was granted license by the Namibians to to develop the mine. In January 2012 China General Nuclear Power Corporation Uranium Resources Company (CGNPC-URC)/China-Africa Development Fund (CADFund) joint-subsidiary Taurus Mineral was provided a $2.115 billion USD loan from the China Development Bank (CDB) (which owns CADFund) to purchase Extract Resources, thus procuring Swakop Uranium and rights to the Husab Uranium Mine. This successful proposal came directly after a failed acquisition attempt by Rio Tinto in 2011. Following the acquisition, China loaned Namibian state-owned company Epangelo Mining Company $258,920,326 USD to acquire a 10% stake in Husab in November 2012. Construction began in 2014 and was completed in 2016.AidData 'Project ID: 30396 - CGNPC subsidiary provides $214 million loan to Epangelo Mining Company to facilitate its acquisition of a 10% stake in Husab Uranium Mine (Linked to Project ID#1425 and #61252)' William & Mary University, Virginia, Accessed July 8, 2024 https://china.aiddata.org/projects/30396/ | AidData 'Project ID: 61252 - China Development Bank provides $1.175 billion loan to Taurus Mineral Ltd. to acquire Hushan Uranium Mine (Linked to Project ID#1425, #30396, #68595)' William & Mary University, Virginia, Accessed July 8, 2024 https://china.aiddata.org/projects/61252/ | World Nuclear Association 'Uranium in Namibia' WNA, United Kingdom, November 14, 2023 https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/namibia | CGN Swakop Uranium 'Operations Overview' CGN Swakop, Swakopmund, Accessed July 8, 2024 http://www.swakopuranium.com/swakopuranium/c032012151/lm_tt2.shtml | John C. Cole, Justin Walls 'Husab Tailings Storage Facility Containment Design' Semantic Scholar, 2014 https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Husab-Tailings-Storage-Facility-Containment-Design-Cole-Walls/fb06c432871f892c6fe41f478db310ffb6b36a55#citing-papers^[24] Husab is the world's third largest uranium mine, and, combined with output from Namibia's three other major uranium mines, of which China owns shares in two (Rössing and Langer Heinrich), produces the third-most uranium by nation globally. The majority of Husab's uranium is exported to China with 20% marketed globally through China Guangdong Nuclear (CGN) Global Uranium, incorporated in the UK in 2014 with the express purpose to sell Husab uranium internationally.World Nuclear News 'Mining operations begin at Husab' WNN, London, May 9, 2014 https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Mining-operations-begin-at-Husab | World Nucleur News 'Groundbreaking at Husab' London, April 22, 2013 https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Groundbreaking-at-Husab | GlobaData 'Namibia: Five Largest Mines in 2021' Accessed July 8, 2024 https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/mining/namibia--five-largest-mines-in-2090794/^[25]

Military Infrastructure

Namibia Command and Staff College

On March 16th, 2008 the PRC signed an Economic and Technical Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) with Namibia to fund the creation of the Namibia Command and Staff College.African Development Bank “Namibia: Country Strategy Paper 2009-2013” March 2009, pg. xix https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Project-and-Operations/Namibia-CSP-OPs%20COM%206.pdf^[26] Construction began in 2011 and, after delayed construction due to reports of unsustainable working conditions and resulting worker strikes, the facility was handed over to the Namibian government in October 2019. The purpose of the institution is "to provide full knowledge of tactical and operational warfare both at command and staff level and comprehensive understanding of the military's role within a democratic society" and that "China will work with Namibia to further deepen [their] cooperation and exchanges in the national defense area to cope with the global safety and security challenges shoulder to shoulder" according to the Chinese Ambassador to Namibia at the time, Zhang Yiming.Li Xia “Chinese-funded military college inaugurated by Namibia's President” Xinhua.net, Beijing, October 17, 2019 http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-10/17/c_138480155.htm^[27]

Despite local law requiring design and construction of public buildings be performed by Namibian entities, complete control of the project was handed over to the Chinese.Fanie Buys, Sean Hallick “The Effect of Chinese Construction Companies on the Namibian Construction Industry; a Construction and Design Team Members’ Perspective” Johannesburg, Acta Structilia: Journal for the Physical and Development Sciences, Volume 17, No. 1, January 2010 https://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/as/article/view/96/90^[28] The facility was designed by the Institute of Architectural Design in Gansu. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce awarded the construction of the project to the Zhengtai Group from Taishou City and Shenyang Engineering Supervision Consulting from Shenyang City.Shenyang Engineering Supervision & Consultant Co. “ Aid to Namibia National Defense College Project” Shenyang City, Accessed February 19, 2024 http://www.syjlzx.com/productshow.php?com=3&cid=8&nid=134^[29] The facility bears strong resemblance to domestic Chinese professional military education (PME) facilities with an ornate gateway, clustered barracks, perimeter fencing, and space for future designated drill/physical activity space. Similarities could be coincidental due to heavy Chinese involvement in planning and development. However, they could also point to Chinese PME in Namibia, which would lead to bilateral interoperability for future military operations.

Government Buildings

SWAPO Party Headquarters

In May, 2019, the Namibian government awarded a N$730 million (over $40 million USD) contract to Chinese-owned Unik Construction to build the SWAPO party headquarters in Windhoek.The Namibian 'Construction of Swapo HQ begins' The Namibian, Windhoek, June 14, 2019 https://www.namibian.com.na/construction-of-swapo-hq-begins/#:~:text=Construction%20vehicles%20and%20other%20earthmoving,Construction%20%E2%80%93%20to%20upgrade%20its%20headquarters.^[30] Unik has been used multiple times by the Namibians, including for constructing the connecting highway between Walvis Bay and Swakopmund. Construction commenced on the SWAPO HQ immediately, with ground breaking in June.Timo Shehepo 'Swapo headquarters project stopped over unpaid N$100m' The Namibian, Windhoek, March 31, 2024 https://www.namibian.com.na/swapo-headquarters-project-stopped-over-unpaid-n100m/^[31] Some observers, including former secretary general Pendukeni Ivula-Iithana, have expressed concern that Chinese construction of party headquarters and other government offices may "compromise party leaders." Others, including Joshua Meservey of D.C.-based thinktank, the Hudson Institute, suggest that disproportionate use of Chinese contractors and telecommunications specialists for these facilities, coupled with Chinese propensity for economic espionage, risks the disruption and exposure of sensitive discussions posed to take place within their walls.Joshua Meservey 'Government Buildings in Africa Are a Likely Vector for Chinese Spying' Heritage Foundation, Washington, D.C., May 20, 2020 https://www.heritage.org/asia/report/government-buildings-africa-are-likely-vector-chinese-spying^[32] Many of these concerns stem from an incident in 2018 when China was found to be siphoning data from the Sino-funded and constructed African Union (AU) headquarters in Addis Ababa, along with the discovery of "microphones and listening devices...in the walls and desks of the building, following a sweep for bugs."Karishma Vaswani 'Huawei: The story of a controversial company' British Broadcasting Company, London, United Kingdom, March 6, 2019 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/Huawei | Ghalia Kadiri 'A Addis-Abeba, le siège de l’Union africaine espionné par Pékin' Le Monde, Paris, France, January 26, 2018 https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2018/01/26/a-addis-abeba-le-siege-de-l-union-africaine-espionne-par-les-chinois_5247521_3212.html | The Economist 'China’s spies are not always as good as advertised' London, United Kingdom, June 1, 2022 https://www.economist.com/china/2022/06/01/chinas-spies-are-not-always-as-good-as-advertised^[33] Two years later, Japan's Cyber Emergency Response Team (CERT) alerted the AU to a series of servers inside their headquarters which were feeding internal video surveillance to a Chinese hacking group called "Bronze President".Salem Solomon 'Experts: Report of China Hacking African Union HQ Fits Larger Pattern' Voice of America, Washington, D.C., January 5, 2021 https://www.voanews.com/a/east-asia-pacific_voa-news-china_experts-report-china-hacking-african-union-hq-fits-larger-pattern/6200356.html | Raphael Satter 'Exclusive-Suspected Chinese hackers stole camera footage from African Union - memo' Reuters, Toronto, Canada, December 16, 2020 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-african-union-cyber-exclusiv/exclusive-suspected-chinese-hackers-stole-camera-footage-from-african-union-memo-idUSKBN28Q1DB/#:~:text=Acting%20on%20a%20tip%20from,sprawling%20campus%20in%20Addis%20Ababa%2C^[34] These events directly followed the establishment of the PRC's National Intelligence Law in 2017, which the United States, Australia, and other Western countries have interpreted as requiring Chinese private entities to report sensitive information back to the party on demand.Arjun Kharpal 'Huawei says it would never hand data to China’s government. Experts say it wouldn’t have a choice' CNBC, New York City, United States, March 4, 2019 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/05/huawei-would-have-to-give-data-to-china-government-if-asked-experts.html | China Law Translate 'PRC National Intelligence Law (as amended in 2018)' Jeremy Daum, Yale China Law Center https://www.chinalawtranslate.com/en/national-intelligence-law-of-the-p-r-c-2017/ | Elaine K. Dezenski, David Rader 'The U.S. Must Combat CCP-Sanctioned Overseas Spying by Private Entities' Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, Washington, D.C., November 22, 2023 https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/11/22/the-u-s-must-combat-ccp-sanctioned-overseas-spying-by-private-entities-2/#:~:text=If%20China%20considers%20that%20stealing,citizens%20to%20become%20corporate%20spies.^[35] These events have led to greater suspicion by African political officials, including Ivula-Iithana. Nonetheless, under Ndaitwah's leadership, SWAPO has continued the use of
Chinese funds and contracting for the development of government buildings. Construction of SWAPO HQ was stopped in March 2024 due to Namibian failure to procure funding, falling short by nearly N$100 million.Shehepo 'Swapo headquarters project stopped over unpaid N$100m' March 31, 2024^[36] Future development is anticipated to progress alongside access to capital.

Conclusions

Satellite imagery analysis helped survey Chinese development projects and assistance to Namibia during Ndaitwah's tenure as Foreign Minister from 2012 to January 2024. Not only were these project completed, but they were done so consistently and with increased volume following Ndaitwah's oversight of Namibian admission to BRI (see chart for additional context).

Ndaitwah's rhetoric surrounding formal bilateral agreements with China suggest further collaboration in years to come, especially with her likely to take the presidential helm. Whether Ndaitwah intends to favor China over Western support remains to be seen. However, with growing support for Chinese involvement relative to that of the United States by Namibian citizens, the incentive structure seems indicative of that trend.Benedict Vigors 'U.S. Loses Soft Power Edge in Africa' Gallup, Washington, D.C., April 26, 2024 https://news.gallup.com/poll/644222/loses-soft-power-edge-africa.aspx^[37] Regardless, it is almost certain that Ndaitwah will leave the door as open as possible to Chinese development in Namibia should she succeed this November. As stated above, both her rhetorical tone and her actions to initiate and escort the BRI agreement to completion are indicative of such. Furthermore, Ndaitwah's hands-on execution of the terms of the agreement, from her immediate follow-up visit to Beijing a year following its signage to her inauguration of Sino-funded community farms this last May, indicate her continued commitment to follow through on its implementation.

Outside of complaints from CCP party officials, and Xi Jinping himself, regarding return on investment for global BRI projects, there is no evidence suggesting the Chinese will halt further BRI work in Namibia.Jason Douglas 'China Reboots Its Belt and Road Initiative' Wall Street Journal, New York City, October 16, 2023 https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-reboots-its-belt-and-road-initiative-99784632 | Lingling Wei 'China Reins In Its Belt and Road Program, $1 Trillion Later' Wall Street Journal, New York City, September 26, 2022 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-belt-road-debt-11663961638?mod=article_inline^[38] Potential BRI developments will likely take the form of higher emphases on digital infrastructure and tighter risk controls.Council on Foreign Relations 'Assessing China's Digital Silk Road Initiative' CFR, Washington, D.C., 2020 https://www.cfr.org/china-digital-silk-road/^[39] If any holds are to be placed by the Chinese, it will likely serve only to consolidate investment in the strategic areas highlighted above, as they pursue their global ambitions.