Climate change in the Arctic is impacting Russia's Arctic plans. As temperatures rise, thawing permafrost has increased the cost of repairs to existing facilities and infrastructure, especially runways. The rate of construction of new facilities more suited to the changing climate situation has also increased Russia's expenditures, which impacts the execution of their strategy.
The water crisis in Afghanistan highlights the importance of Taliban management of Afghan dams. Our analysis of open source data and commercial satellite imagery reveals that, as a gesture towards improved relations, the Taliban has begun to release water into Iran with greater frequency than the former Afghan government.
With the recent Taliban takeover of government in Afghanistan, it is important to analyze gemstone mining sites as they may be strategic sources of income. Gemstones have long been a source of wealth for both miners and for those who control the supply. Geospatial analysis of gemstone mining sites in Afghanistan answers critical intelligence questions related to these sites.
Climate change in the Arctic is impacting Russia's Arctic plans. As temperatures rise, thawing permafrost has increased the cost of repairs to existing facilities and infrastructure, especially runways. The rate of construction of new facilities more suited to the changing climate situation has also increased Russia's expenditures, which impacts the execution of their strategy.
Chinese investments in Russian Arctic energy projects are facing complications due to sanctions on Russia.
GEOINT analysis confirms Russian public declarations to expand the storage facilities at Okolnaya submarine support base and Gadzhiyevo submarine base.
Upgrades at Severomorsk-1 Air base increases Russia's operational readiness, presence, and capabilities in the northwest Arctic region, improving domain awareness and operational capacity around the Kola Peninsula. Further upgrades would expand operational capacity towards the GIUK-N Gap. However, GEOINT analysis shows slow construction progress.
Russia's military posture and the deployment of S-400s in its Western Arctic reflects the Soviet legacy of bastion defense comprised of "concentric circles" designed to protect strategic territory.
The Dara Sakor Airport in Koh Kong, Cambodia is a project under China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The airport contains a 3,300-meter-long runway near the Cambodian coast. Since 2019, Pentagon planners and others in the strategic commentary space have expressed concerns that Dara Sakor could serve as a dual-use Chinese military airfield (see notes). As of May 2023, GEOINT shows no military infrastructure is present. Open evidence suggests Dara Sakor may be another overly grand BRI project.
Ecuador's desire to become a global exporter of copper coincides with increased Chinese demand for and investment in copper mining. Both copper mines in Ecuador are owned by the same Chinese company. The inauguration of mine construction and activity has led to negative environmental damage and forced relocations of indigenous communities at both mines.
Expansion of copper mining is driving economic growth in Peru, which coincides with increased Chinese demand and investment in copper mining. Chinese involvement in Peru's mining sector varies by project and is often obfuscated through intermediary company involvement in mine acquisition or construction.
Though Chinese "Belt-and-Road Initiative" (BRI) investments and related economic activities abroad have been a touchpoint for international studies, this report poses a hypothetical "what if" scenario and seeks to address one facet of the potential implications if Chinese facilities abroad are used for dual-use military/civilian purposes.
In contrast to our findings of BRI hydroelectric power projects in Bolivia, in Ecuador, we observe fewer problematic environmental impacts in the majority of Chinese projects, with several accompanied by substantial local community development initiatives.
In 2017, a Chinese national security law mandated citizens and business entities comply with requests for information by Chinese intelligence agencies. With this law, the presence of Chinese telecommunications companies in South America poses potential security threats.
The policy goals of the Made in China 2025 (MIC25) plan have increased development in Shenzhen High-Tech Industrial Park's dominant industries. From 2015 to 2022, imagery analysis showed increased activity and construction, much of which promoted MIC25's core industries.
Zhangjiang High-Tech Industrial Park predates the 2015 inauguration of Made in China 2025 (MIC25). However, development in the park reaffirms MIC25 goals. Activity in the park reflects the policy priorities of MIC25: talent recruitment, foreign investment, and green development.
The broad policy goals of the Made in China 2025 (MIC25) plan have a real-world activity impact on the urban layout of the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area, most notably in residential and environmental activity. Further, industrial clusters and companies in the zone appear to be guided by the MIC25's ten core industries.
The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) has garnered significant attention with respect to the construction of over three hundred missile silos dispersed across three silo fields. This report seeks to investigate the geospatial characteristics of each site and use that data to inform a search strategy. China watchers and analysts should have a systematic method for defining search strategies, and this report serves as a foundational first step in that effort.
The Zhurihe training base, China's most premiere training site, has undergone significant infrastructure developments since the mid-to-late 2010s. Such developments include the expansion of rail depots, logistics areas, urban training areas, and construction of an energy farm. These developments and the extensive maneuver space suggest an improved ability to conduct and support realistic training exercises.
In September 2020, against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic and with the global economy still reeling, China pledged that it would achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. In this two-part series, researchers from the Columbia School of International and Public Affairs explore China's progress towards that goal along two vectors: "brown" and "green." Part 2 ("green") examines how tree cover has changed in two provinces as China conducts major tree-planting efforts.
In September 2020, against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic and with the global economy still reeling, China pledged that it would achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. In this two-part series, researchers from the Columbia School of International and Public Affairs explore China's progress towards that goal along two vectors: "brown" and "green". Part I ("brown") identifies 5 coal-fired power plants, approved in March 2020, and tracks their construction and continued development.
This report uses nighttime lighting data to track the relocation of Rohingya refugees from the Cox's Bazaar region of Bangladesh to Bhasan Char, a 'floating island' in the Bay of Bengal built by the Government of Bangladesh to house roughly 100,000 refugees. Constructed on reclaimed land in a monsoon, cyclone, and tsunami-prone region, Bhasan Char poses not only humanitarian challenges, but physical and human rights challenges as the Rohingya become isolated from the mainland.
A growing body of research has systematically documented Chinese efforts to imprison, detain, and re-educate ethnic Uyghur and minority groups throughout its western Xinjiang province. In this three-part investigation, RAND researchers explore new data on nighttime lighting in Xinjiang to offer new, empirical insights into China’s efforts to reeducate, detain, and imprison its Uyghur and ethnic minority populations across Xinjiang.
This report, the second in a three-part series, employs a novel empirical approach to systematically assess the current operating status of known detention facilities in Xinjiang using nighttime lighting. This analysis provides new, empirical evidence to suggest that the overwhelming majority of detention facilities in Xinjiang remain active, operational, and in many cases, still under construction – despite Chinese claims to the contrary.
This report, the final in our series, explores trends in the growth and decline of nighttime lighting over detention facilities across Xinjiang. It reveals evidence to suggest that long-term prisons have become a greater priority than reeducation centers, along with those located in rural areas or in areas administered by the XPCC, among other trends. Overall, this report helps chart the current trajectory of China’s widespread detention of Uyghur and ethnic minority populations in the region.
Analysis of 48 Uyghur cemeteries in Xinjiang indicates that while many were repurposed for the reasons cited by the Chinese government, fully a third were demolished with no further development on the site.
This study investigates the effectiveness of state-of-the-art deep learning models trained on high-resolution single-band satellite images in estimating site-level industrial development over time in the People's Republic of China.
This study defines and parses the differences between territorial / separatist terrorism versus non-territorial seeking terrorism from a spatial and geographic perspective. This spatial/geographic component of the research is foundational due to prior research often focusing on the motivations of terrorism rather than spatial and geographic perspectives.
North Korea's tourism industry took a major hit in 2020 when the pandemic forced the country to close its borders. Once high-profile construction projects, such as the Wonsan-Kalma Beach Resort, were effectively halted as priorities shifted toward domestically oriented projects. Despite a slow reopening to trade in 2022, activity at the North's key tourist sites remains largely unchanged.
In 2020, Typhoon Maysak ravaged North Korea's northeast provinces, devastating large portions of the mineral-rich mining region of Komdok. In the storm's wake, Kim Jong Un directed a plan to rebuild Komdok and transform it into a “model” mining community. Nearly two years later, the flood-damaged road and railway networks have been restored, and over 2,000 new housing units have been constructed.
Adequate domestic food production is a persistent challenge in North Korea, given its limited arable land. Long-term efforts to increase that capacity through tideland reclamation projects along the country’s west coast began in the 1980s, although suffered serious setbacks in the first decade due to poor engineering and maintenance and natural disasters.
North Korea’s cement industry is central to achieving several of the goals set forth in the new five-year economic plan. Cement and concrete are necessary for improvement or expansion of tourist facilities, housing, roads, major construction projects, and even non-carbon electrical energy production. However, it is difficult to assess the industry’s capacity, output, modernization and expansion.
The redevelopment of the Sepho Tableland is one example of North Korea’s efforts to adapt its agricultural practices to perform better within the constraints of the land. This project sought to convert high elevation terrains, which are not conducive to crop production, into grassy fields for supporting livestock farming, thus increasing protein production while maximizing less than ideal land resources.
Since 2017, Russia has become increasingly involved in the affairs of the Central African Republic (CAR). A recent agreement between the two countries granted the Russian mining company "Lobaye Invest" exclusive mineral rights to ore deposits throughout the country. Activity in these sites has resulted in observable environmental degradation in the mining permit areas.
China’s economic diplomacy has encouraged the use of special economic zones (SEZs) abroad. These areas of specialized regulation and incentives are aimed at attracting foreign investment. However, China’s emphasis on SEZs to promote quick economic growth has raised questions about whether China is sacrificing sustainable development for speed.
Evaluating the impact of SEZ development on land, water and air using satellite imagery, we identify examples of where zones appear to be succeeding or struggling to preserve and protect their local environmental conditions.
Social sustainability revolves around how the zone treats its workers and the surrounding community. We observed variation in the provision of housing, training facilities and quality of infrastructure supporting workers' commutes.
Despite significant strides in implementing domestic regulation to curb environmental degradation, the Zambia-China Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone (ZCCZ) is an example of gaps that exist in China's sustainability practices overseas.
Baykar Technologies, based in Istanbul, Turkey, is one of the predominant manufacturers of Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) today. This report examines the growth, current disposition, and likely future changes to the company's physical infrastructure at its three principal facilities.
Baykar Technologies, based in Istanbul, Turkey, is one of the predominant manufacturers of Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) today. This report examines Baykar's production, flight testing, training, and delivery operations using satellite imagery and open sources.
This is an article published by an NGA geodesy specialist on global navigation compatibility. This content is different than other Tearline content because the primary author is a government employee. Tearline is experimenting with this content type to broaden dissemination.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine presents potential environmental consequences. Since early 2022, Russian forces have attacked multiple oil refineries across the country. Watershed analysis indicates that contamination from these attacks could pollute lands, groundwater, and seep into nearby surface waters.
This report summarizes confirmed impacts to cultural heritage sites due to the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine from September 2022 through January 2023. Confirmations were made by the Cultural Heritage Monitoring Lab (CHML), using high-resolution commercial satellite imagery supplied by CHML's partnership with NGA. In total, CHML analysts confirmed conflict-related impacts to 102 Ukrainian sites between 01 September 2022 and 31 January 2023, for a total of 309 since 24 February 2022.
According to commercial satellite imagery and open-source reporting, Moscow dismantled tents at alleged filtration sites in the southern Donetsk Oblast region, at the Russian Veselo-Voznesenka border checkpoint, and along the M-2 Highway between the towns of Kharkiv and Belgorod in Russia likely due to the decline in displaced civilian movement (as evidenced in declining vehicle activity) and “filtration” needs through these areas.
This report summarizes confirmed impacts to cultural heritage sites due to the conflict in Ukraine between July and August 2022 by the Cultural Heritage Monitoring Lab (CHML). The methodology for the confirmation process relies on analysis of high-resolution commercial satellite imagery which has been supplied by CHML's partnership with NGA. In total, CHML analysts confirmed conflict-related impacts to 99 cultural sites between 1 July 2022 and 31 August 2022, totaling 207 since 24 February 2022.
This report summarizes confirmed impacts to cultural heritage sites due to the armed conflict in Ukraine between February and June 2022. All impact confirmations were made by the Cultural Heritage Monitoring Lab (CHML). CHML's methodology for the confirmation process relies on analysis of high-resolution commercial satellite imagery (access supplied by NGA). In total, CHML analysts confirmed conflict-related impacts to 108 cultural sites throughout Ukraine between 24 February and 30 June 2022.