Background

The Syrian Civil War that began in 2011 devastated the country’s critical energy infrastructure.  Militant groups consistently targeted power plants,https://www.reuters.com/article/world/syrian-pm-says-power-crisis-worsens-as-militants-target-plants-idUSKCN0Q32AS/^[1] and in 2021, power consumption levels were 15% of those measured in 2010,https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2022^[2] according to Reuters and the United Nations Development Programme. In a May 2024 interview with Chinese state news, Syria’s Minister of Electricity Ghassan Al-Zamel reported that the cost of war on the electricity grid was around USD $40 billion, and that more than half of the electric infrastructure was destroyed.https://arabic.news.cn/20240514/892714bf4abe46c7992821fbe4445544/c.html^[3]

To repair the power grid, Assad’s government opened the door for foreign countries to aid in the reconstruction process. Russia invested in Syria’s oil and gas fieldshttps://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/russias-energy-goals-syria^[4] and signed a contract for the rehabilitation of key Syrian power plants, according to think tanks, regional news, and Syrian state news.https://www.alestiklal.net/ar/article/dep-news-1636704338^[5]https://sana.sy/en/?p=126059^[6] Iran also heavily invested in the energy sector. Iran was a main source of oil and gas for Assad’s government,https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/irans-oil-finds-new-destinations-tehran-export-push-sources-say-2024-08-09/^[7] and signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) with Syria for the repair of the Aleppo, Al-Taim, Jandar, and Tartus Power Plants, as well as the construction of a new power plant near Latakia as reported by the European University Institute and Reuters.https://web.archive.org/web/20241111025313/https:/cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/72182/QM-02-21-984-EN-N.pdf?sequence=8^[8]

However, in late November 2024, a rebel offensive was launched in Syria.https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/27/middleeast/syria-rebel-attack-aleppo-assad-intl-latam/index.html^[9] By December 8, 2024, resistance groups had swept through the country and overthrown the government, causing President Assad to flee to Russia.https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-sweida-daraa-homs-hts-qatar-816e538565d1ae47e016b5765b044d31^[10] As a result, Iranian shipments of oil and gas were stopped, leading the oil refinery in Baniyas to halt operations.https://www.iranintl.com/en/202412194338^[11] Iran’s decreased presence in the country created an opportunity for other countries to increase their investment as the new government sets the goal of 24-hour electricity availability.https://web.archive.org/web/20250124143926/https:/www.newarab.com/news/syrias-three-phase-plan-address-electricity-crisis^[12]

Methodology

In addition to satellite imagery and open-source intelligence (OSINT) as outlined in the Activity Intro, this report also uses nighttime light imagery obtained from NASA to assess the current state of Syria’s electricity grid. We charted average levels of nighttime light brightness from Damascus and Aleppo, Syria’s two biggest cities, from September 2024 to March 2025. A line of best fit was then generated to clearly visualize the overall trend. One point was excluded from the graph and the line of best fit calculation where data for more than half the defined area of interest was missing.

Discussion

We assess with moderate confidence that:

• The fall of the Assad government has decreased Iran's involvement in Syrian energy projects.
• Jordan, Turkey, Qatar, Russia, and Saudi Arabia seek investments in Syrian energy projects, but, so far, have made little concrete progress.
• Electricity availability for the people of Syria has not improved since September 2024.

Decrease of Current Iranian Involvement

Iran worked on numerous power plants in Syria, but only power plant projects in the cities of Latakia and Aleppo were ongoing up until the fall of the Assad government on December 8, 2024.

Latakia

On September 12, 2017, Syria's then-Minister of Electricity, Muhammad Zuhair Kharboutli, and Iran's Ministry of Energy signed an MoU to bring Iranian expertise and investment to the country.https://web.archive.org/web/20241111025313/https:/cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/72182/QM-02-21-984-EN-N.pdf?sequence=8^[13] The MoU included the construction of a 540-megawatt (MW) gas-fired power plant on the outskirts of the port city of Latakia. According to state media, Iran’s MAPNA Group, a conglomerate of Iranian manufacturing, power, and engineering companies, obtained the contract to build the power plant from the Syrian General Electrical Generating Corporation (PEEG) on October 2, 2018.https://web.archive.org/web/20181007100005/http:/kayhan.ir/en/news/58098/mapna-signs-deal-to-build-power-plant-in-latakia^[14]

After over five years of construction, MAPNA Group announced on November 5, 2024, that they had “provisionally handed over” the second gas unit to Syria’s PEEG.https://web.archive.org/web/20250307023146/https:/mapnagroup.com/43425/mapna-group-receives-pac-for-second-gas-unit-of-latakia-power-plant/?lang=en^[15] A provisional handover refers to completed construction that fulfills the requirements of a contract.https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/provisional-hand-over-certificate^[16] Rebel groups took over Latakia province on December 9, 2024,https://kyivindependent.com/syrian-opposition-reportedly-takes-control-of-latakia-province-hosting-russian-bases/^[17] and it is unclear if MAPNA Group remains present on site.

Figures 1 and 2 show the construction progress made from 2019-2024.

Since the fall of the Assad government on December 8, 2024, the latest available imagery from January 14, 2025, shows no significant changes at the site, indicating that the construction process has been paused.

Aleppo

The 2017 MoU between Minister Kharboutli and Iran’s Ministry of Energy also included an agreement to repair two turbines at the Aleppo Thermal Power Plant.https://web.archive.org/web/20241111025313/https:/cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/72182/QM-02-21-984-EN-N.pdf?sequence=8^[18] According to Iranian state media, in June 2022, engineers from the MAPNA Group repaired the plant's fifth unit,https://web.archive.org/web/20250314165009/https:/thecradle.co/articles-id/3613^[19]https://web.archive.org/web/20231011102010/https:/www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/10/05/712142/Syria-Aleppo-power-plant-Iran^[20] and in October 2023, they repaired two additional units.Ibid^[21] Commercial satellite imagery seen in Figure 3 shows steam appearing from two of the stacks at the Aleppo Thermal Power Plant after the date of the repairs, indicating that the units are likely in operation.

Prior to November 2024, Iranian state media claimed that Iran had reaffirmed their commitment to rehabilitate the remaining three units of the Aleppo Thermal Power Plant.Ibid^[22] However, since rebel groups took over Aleppo Province on November 30, 2024,https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/30/middleeast/syrian-rebels-control-aleppo-city-intl/index.html^[23] there has been no further reporting to indicate whether MAPNA Group has continued their work at the plant. On December 17, 2024, a Lebanese news source reported that the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei urged the new Syrian government to abide by the previously signed agreements, treaties, and MoUs.https://web.archive.org/web/20241217150338/https:/www.lebanondebate.com/news/677460^[24] The spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission at the Iranian Parliament stated on May 27, 2025, that Syrians are demanding Iranian contractors return to the region, according to Iranian reporting.https://armaneghtesadi.com/en/39018/2025/05/27/syria-demands-return-of-iranian-contractors-lawmaker/^[25] No official response from the Syrian government has been reported at this time.

Increase in Alternative Foreign Involvement

As Iran’s presence has diminished, additional countries have sought to increase their regional influence. Jordan, Turkey, Qatar, Russia, and Saudi Arabia have sought investments in Syrian energy projects, but we assess with moderate confidence that they have made little concrete progress so far.

Jordan 

On January 7, 2025, Syrian news sources and Attaqa reported on a bilateral meeting held between the Jordanian Minister of Energy Saleh Al-Kharabsheh, Syrian Minister of Mineral Resources Ghiyath Diab, and then-Syrian Minister of Electricity Omar Shaqruoq. Kharabsheh stated that Jordan was ready to supply Syria with around 250 MW of electricity daily through the 400-kilovolt (kV) transmission line connecting the two countries, but according to the Middle East Monitor, the line has been out of operation since 2012 and Syria is not able to receive electricity.https://web.archive.org/web/20250122180139/https:/shaam.org/news/syria-news/%D8%AA%D9%85%D9%87%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B2%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%AF%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D9%80-250-%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%BA%D8%A7%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%86-%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%84-%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%82%D8%A7-%D9%81%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%A5%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%82%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%B4%D8%A8%D9%83%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A1^[26]https://web.archive.org/web/20250314170334/https:/attaqa.net/2025/01/09/%D8%B4%D8%AD%D9%86%D8%A9-%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7-%D8%B6%D8%AE%D9%85%D8%A9-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%B7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%82%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%A5%D9%84/^[27]https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250103-jordan-ready-to-supply-electricity-to-syria/^[28] In January 2025, a technical team from Jordan was preparing to inspect the Syrian power line to determine how long the proper repairs would take, though until repairs occur the electricity will not be transmitted. The process is expected to take up to six months.https://web.archive.org/web/20250108214005/https:/levant24.com/news/national/2025/01/rebuilding-electrical-infrastructure-in-liberated-syria/^[29]

The Jordan-Syria transmission line connection is located at the Nasib Border Crossing. Lines stretch from the Deir Ali Power Plant near Damascus, through Nasib, and connect to the Jordanian electricity grid at the North Amman Power Station, as seen in Figure 5.

Media on social networks and news outlets show workers from the Jordanian “Irbid District Electricity Company” working on energy infrastructure in Syria.https://www.facebook.com/reel/1584101092497464/^[30]https://www.facebook.com/reel/908825514779540^[31]https://www.instagram.com/akhbar_turkiye/p/DEXcVgFqIK8/-%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A9-%D9%83%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A5%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%A3-%D8%AA%D8%B2%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D9%86%D8%B5%D9%8A%D8%A8-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D9%85%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B8%D8%A9-%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%B9%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A/?img_index=1^[32]https://www.instagram.com/arab_and_muslim/reel/DGTSXEsomT_/^[33]

According to an interview with the Syrian Minister of Electricity Ghassan al-Zamel, and a news site focused on Syrian energy, Syria has struggled to obtain enough fuel to operate their power plants. Al-Zamel claimed that only 28% of the required gas and 45% of the required fuel were being provided daily.https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2024/10/syria-energy-transition-under-conflict-conditions?lang=en^[34]https://web.archive.org/web/20250113141656/http:/www.syria-electricity.com/?page=Details&category_id=95&id=3503^[35] In another interview with Interior Minister Al-Faraya on February 7, 2025, it was stated that the Nasib border crossing was being used to supply gas to Syria.https://www.mees.com/2025/1/17/geopolitical-risk/new-syria-seeks-jordanian-gas-to-alleviate-power-shortages/68ba3e40-d4e5-11ef-8cdf-ff104c2e998e^[36] Additionally, the CEO of Jordan Petroleum Refinery Company, Hassan al-Hayari said that 500 tons of gas were exported to Syria every day, according to independent Syrian reporting.https://npasyria.com/en/121618/^[37]

Qatar

In January 2025, the Jordanian Minister of Energy proposed using the Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU) in Aqaba, connected with the Arab Gas Pipeline, to supply Syria with the gas required to fuel their power plants, according to an announcement reported by Arab news outlets.https://web.archive.org/web/20250122180139/https:/shaam.org/news/syria-news/%D8%AA%D9%85%D9%87%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B2%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%AF%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D9%80-250-%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%BA%D8%A7%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%86-%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%84-%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%82%D8%A7-%D9%81%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%A5%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%82%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%B4%D8%A8%D9%83%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A1^[26]https://npasyria.com/en/121618/^[37]https://web.archive.org/web/20250131050247/https:/www.athrpress.com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%86-%D9%8A%D8%B9%D8%AA%D8%B2%D9%85-%D8%AA%D8%B2%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A7/%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF/^[38] Figure 8 shows the FSRU in Aqaba, Jordan.

On March 13, 2025, it was announced that Qatar would fund the provision of gas to Syria through the Arab Gas Pipeline from the Aqaba port in Jordan, to the Deir Ali Power Plant near Damascus. The fuel would increase the plant’s output by 400 MW, and the Syrian Minister of Electricity confirmed the deal, estimating that it would allow for 2-4 more hours of electricity per day, doubling the previously allotted 2 hours, according to various news sources and the UNDP.https://www.npr.org/2025/01/28/nx-s1-5269427/syria-new-government-electricity^[39]https://www.undp.org/arab-states/press-releases/qatar-provides-reliable-natural-gas-supplies-syria-critical-improving-electricity-supply^[40]https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/qatar-supply-gas-syria-with-us-nod-sources-say-2025-03-13/^[41]https://english.alarabiya.net/business/energy/2025/03/13/qatar-begins-supplying-natural-gas-to-syria-via-jordan^[42]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/13/qatar-begins-supplying-natural-gas-to-syria-through-jordan^[43] We have found no evidence that these shipments have started or have resulted in an increase in hours of electricity per day.

On January 16, 2025, Qatar's Prime Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, met with Syria's president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, to discuss efforts to reactivate damaged energy infrastructure in Syria. Qatar committed to supplying Syria with an initial 200 MW of electricity as part of the agreement, with plans to gradually expand the capacity across more than ten regions, according to Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.https://mofa.gov.qa/en/latest-articles/Press-conferences/the-joint-press-conference-of-his-excellency-the-prime-minister-and-minister-of-foreign-affairs-with-the-leader-of-the-new-administration-of-syria^[44]

In March 2025, Reuters reported that Qatar is also working with Turkey to provide electricity to Syria through two floating power ships. In total, the two ships will provide 800 MW of electricity according to the Syrian director general of the General Establishment for Electricity Transmission and Distribution.https://mofa.gov.qa/en/latest-articles/Press-conferences/the-joint-press-conference-of-his-excellency-the-prime-minister-and-minister-of-foreign-affairs-with-the-leader-of-the-new-administration-of-syria^[44] He did not specify over what time period the ships would be operating.https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-receive-electricity-generating-ships-qatar-turkey-2025-01-07/^[45] The decision to send the energy ships came only after the U.S. granted sanction waivers for energy sales with Syrian state institutions for six months.https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/02/05/assads-fall-and-the-qatari-gas-pipeline/^[46]

As of March 13, 2025, the ships have not been sent, and no timeline has been set for their use in Syria, according to social media.https://www.facebook.com/groups/299308229004352/posts/939788228289679/^[47] The Syrian Minister of Electricity has claimed that the ships may never arrive because of financial and logistical challenges, an independent Syrian news source reported.https://web.archive.org/web/20250130153550/https:/syria-report.com/turkish-and-qatari-electricity-ships-not-expected-anytime-soon-minister-of-electricity/^[48] They are not visible in any of Syria’s major ports in the most recent available imagery.

On May 29, 2025, news sites reported that Syria signed an MoU valued at USD $7 billion with several international companies led by Qatar’s UCC Holding. This agreement aims at developing major power generation projects, including four combined-cycle gas turbine power plants in eastern and central Syria and a solar power plant in the south. These projects are anticipated to be completed in three years and are expected to provide over half of Syria’s electricity needs.https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/syria-signs-7-billion-power-deal-with-qatars-ucc-holding-led-consortium-2025-05-29/^[49]https://www.turkishminute.com/2025/05/29/syria-signs-7-billion-energy-deal-with-qatari-turkish-us-companies/^[50]

Russia

In March 2025, U.S.-sanctioned Russian crude oil tankers Aquatica and Sakina reportedly provided Syria with around 200,000 tons of oil, according to independent Syrian reporting and Reuters.https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2025/04/oil-and-gas-slowly-flowing-into-syria/^[51]https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-ships-its-arctic-oil-syria-first-time-sanctions-limit-buyers-2025-03-21/^[52]

Satellite imagery in Figure 9 shows a ship with the same dimensions and design as the Sakina anchored near Baniyas around the date of the reported delivery, though we are unable to confirm this is the Sakina. Baniyas is home to the Baniyas Oil Refinery, the largest oil refinery in Syria.https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/syria-s-largest-oil-refinery-halts-as-new-leadership-faces-f^[53]

Sentinel imagery in Figure 10 from March 22, 2025, also shows a ship matching the dimensions of the Aquatica’s near Baniyas around the date of the reported delivery. However, imagery lacks enough resolution to determine if the design of the deck aligns with publicly available images of the Aquatica.

On March 6, 2025, the U.S.-sanctioned Russian tanker Prosperity arrived at Baniyas carrying 37,000 tons of diesel, according to Reuters.https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-ships-diesel-syria-tanker-under-us-sanctions-data-shows-2025-03-06/^[54] There is no available imagery of the anchored ship, but Automatic Identification System (AIS) data shared on a regional news outlet places it near Baniyas a day before the Reuters report.https://daraj.media/سُفن-معاقبة-ومشبوهة-دولياً-تنقل-الديز/^[55]

According to the International Energy Agency, over 99% of Syria’s total energy supply in 2022 came from oil and natural gas.https://www.iea.org/countries/syria/energy-mix^[56] This increase in oil and gas imports has the potential to increase output for Syria’s power plants requiring additional fuel.

Turkey

After the fall of Assad’s government in December 2024, a delegation from Turkey’s energy ministry was set to visit Syria to address energy challenges, according to a Turkish news agency.https://web.archive.org/web/20250228132733/https:/www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/electricity/delegation-to-visit-syria-for-assessment-of-energy-infrastructure-turkiyes-energy-minister/46421^[57] On January 10, 2025, Energy Minister Bayraktar stated that Turkey was developing business models to integrate the private sector in supporting Syrian electricity, and that natural gas could be provided to assist in electricity generation.https://web.archive.org/web/20250121153051/https:/www.hurriyetdailynews.com/energy-minister-bayraktar-plans-to-visit-syria-204547^[58]

As of January 2025, Turkey plans to export 500 MW of electricity to Syria, according to Arab news outlets reporting on statements Bayraktar made during the 15th session of the General Assembly of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).https://web.archive.org/web/20250113171925/https:/www.trtarabi.com/now/%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A-%D8%B3%D9%86%D8%B2%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D8%A5%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D9%82%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A5%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%AF%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A7-%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B1%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B1-18253252^[59] At the same event, Bayraktar also stated that Turkey already supplies 210 MW to Syria daily, distributed through seven different points with plans to increase it to 300 MW by February 2026.https://web.archive.org/web/20250314174107/https:/ncmes.org/4066/^[60]https://web.archive.org/web/20250314173757/https:/www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=618308160950441&id=100083137878586&_rdr^[61]https://web.archive.org/web/20250304093734/https:/www.hurriyetdailynews.com/new-era-to-begin-in-natural-gas-and-oil-says-energy-minister-206217^[62]

Additionally, Reuters reported that Turkey is the supplier for the previously mentioned plan to provide two floating power plants Syria with 800 MW of electricity.https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/turkeys-karpowership-says-running-supply-power-syria-2024-12-30/^[63]https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-receive-electricity-generating-ships-qatar-turkey-2025-01-07/^[64] Turkish company “Karpowership”, which has 40 power ships in their fleet, according to their website, would supply the ships.https://web.archive.org/web/20250314174438/https:/karpowership.com/global-presence^[65] There is no reporting or imagery indicating that these ships have arrived or are on their way to Syrian ports.

In a news conference on January 30, 2025, Alparslan Bayraktar announced plans to build a 50-60 km gas pipeline to Aleppo to provide energy to power plants, increasing electricity supply by 50%. The pipeline was slated to take 12-15 months to construct. Turkish officials also suggested the pipeline could eventually operate in reverse, enabling Syrian gas to flow north into Turkey, according to an Arab satellite news site.https://web.archive.org/web/20250206172724/https:/english.almayadeen.net/news/Economy/turkey-eyes-role-in-syria-s-energy-sector-with-gas-pipeline^[66]

According to Turkish state media, Turkey’s Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced that as of May 21, 2025, a natural gas pipeline between Kilis and Aleppo (distance 50-60km) was completed. However, testing and installation of equipment are ongoing, and natural gas will not be exported until June.https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/energy-diplomacy/turkiye-completes-natural-gas-pipeline-to-aleppo-eyes-exports-to-syria-by-june/49380^[67] According to Syrian state media, this pipeline will connect to the Aleppo Thermal Power Plant.https://syria-report.com/syria-seeking-foreign-investment-in-a-bid-to-boost-energy-production/^[68] Turkish state media reports that six million cubic meters of gas will be supplied daily to fuel Syrian power plants, adding an estimated 1200-1300 MW to the grid.https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/energy-diplomacy/turkiye-completes-natural-gas-pipeline-to-aleppo-eyes-exports-to-syria-by-june/49380^[69] This project is part of the Arab Gas Pipeline Project, which is located underground, making it difficult to observe construction on satellite imagery.https://syria-report.com/syria-seeking-foreign-investment-in-a-bid-to-boost-energy-production/#:~:text=The%20agreement%20also%20involves%20rehabilitating,daily%20to%20Syria%27s%20power%20stations.^[70]https://www.arabfund.org/blog/projects/arab-gas-pipeline-project-third-stage-aleppo-kalas-section/^[71]

According to Syrian state media, on May 22, 2025, an agreement was signed to connect Syria and Turkey with a 400-kV transmission line capable of sending 80 MW of electricity.https://sana.sy/en/?p=354429^[72] The Syrian energy sector's chief Mohammed al-Bashir stated in a joint press conference that the transmission line is expected to be in operation by the end of 2025.https://english.news.cn/20250522/ca2d3657e3764dc6bd3779fa746fdc53/c.html#:~:text=Speaking%20at%20a%20joint%20press,%2C%22%20al%2DBashir%20said.^[73] According to independent Syrian news, the transmission line would link Turkey’s Reyhanli District to the Syrian Harim region in the Idlib countryside.https://npasyria.com/en/125355/^[74]

Two Turkish companies are represented in the aforementioned USD $7 billion MoU signed between Syria and Qatar’s UCC Holding, Turkey’s Kalyon GES Enerji Yatirimlari and Cengiz Enerji.https://www.turkishminute.com/2025/05/29/syria-signs-7-billion-energy-deal-with-qatari-turkish-us-companies/^[75]

Saudi Arabia

According to the Atlantic Council, during a meeting between a Saudi delegation led by an adviser to the royal court and the new Syrian president in early January, Saudi Arabia pledged to supply fuel to Syria and replace Iran as Syria’s primary oil supplier.https://web.archive.org/web/20250313003716/https:/www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/syrias-energy-sector-and-its-impact-on-stability-and-regional-developments/^[76]https://web.archive.org/web/20250313055258/http:/www.eiu.com/n/saudi-arabia-renews-diplomatic-push-in-syria-and-yemen/^[77] A Saudi oil tanker was reportedly on its way to Baniyas as of late December 2024, however we have been unable to confirm this claim with OSINT or satellite imagery.https://web.archive.org/web/20250119091529/https:/israel-alma.org/the-energy-crisis-in-syria-opportunities-and-implications/^[78] These imports could fuel the Syrian power plants that operate on oil.

Assessment of the Current State of Syria’s Grid

Before the fall of Assad’s government, the damaged Syrian electricity grid struggled to keep up with demand. Under the new government, Aleppo and Damascus show no signs of increased electricity availability. Figure 12 shows analysis of nighttime light data from September 2024 to March 2025. The data shows no increase in brightness following the collapse of Assad's government.

Nighttime light radiance declined on average in Aleppo and Damascus from September 2024 to March 2025. Additionally, American news reported Syria’s persistent energy crisis following the fall of Assad’s government, and on April 1, 2025, a nationwide power outage affected the grid.https://www.npr.org/2025/01/28/nx-s1-5269427/syria-new-government-electricity^[79]https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/nationwide-power-outage-syria-due-malfunctions-energy-ministers-spokesperson-2025-04-01/^[80] Syria’s new government plans to incorporate a three-phase plan to address the problem originating from low access to fuel and maintenance equipment, according to news reports.https://web.archive.org/web/20250124143926/https:/www.newarab.com/news/syrias-three-phase-plan-address-electricity-crisis^[81] This approach includes urgent emergency maintenance to provide rationed electricity to the entire population, repairs of power plants and transmission lines, and development of a sustainable “24-hour power supply”.Ibid^[82] No further details were provided on the logistics of this plan.

On February 27, the new government announced plans for a 100 MW solar investment project to be built near Damascus, according to a news report.https://web.archive.org/web/20250227212808/https:/www.newarab.com/news/syria-unveils-solar-power-station-tackle-energy-shortages^[83] The project has not yet attracted any investors.

Possible Futures

With a new government struggling to meet demands, we assess two likely futures for the trajectory of foreign involvement in Syria’s energy infrastructure.

Future 1: As sanctions decrease and the new Syrian government remains stable, more countries plan for longer term investment in energy projects. 

On May 13, 2025, the President of the United States announced that a plan to lift sanctions against Syria.https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-us-will-end-sanctions-syria-works-deepen-diplomatic-ties-sa-rcna206471^[84] On April 24, 2025, the U.K. lifted sanctions on services related to energy production, hoping to “facilitate essential investment in Syria’s energy infrastructure."https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-bolsters-support-for-syrian-people-by-amending-syria-sanctions^[85] Additionally, on May 20, 2025, the European Union (EU) decided to lift sanctions on Syria to aid in the country’s rebuilding process.https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kallas-hopes-eu-ministers-agree-lift-syria-economic-sanctions-2025-05-20/^[86]

Turkey-Qatar Gas Pipeline Project

According to Azerbaijani state media, on April 2, 2025, Turkey and Syria reached an agreement to resume construction of a pipeline linking Qatar’s North Field gas reserves to Turkey’s Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP), which would pass through Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.https://caliber.az/en/post/turkiye-syria-reach-deal-to-revive-qatar-europe-gas-pipeline-project^[87] A map of this plan is shown in Figure 13. These renewed ambitions for a gas pipeline would provide the EU with cheaper and more reliable imports, according to Turkish state news.https://web.archive.org/web/20250403221442/https:/www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/energy-diplomacy/turkiye-qatar-natural-gas-pipeline-could-be-revived-says-turkish-energy-minister/46164^[88] The project would potentially provide Syria with easier access to sources of gas, an important source of fuel for their power plants.

However, Turkey’s Energy Minister previously confirmed in December 2024 that the project remains dependent on Syria achieving stability, according to a Turkish news agency.Ibid^[89] As of May 2025, no timeline, capacity estimates, or funding agreements have been finalized.https://web.archive.org/web/20250224084325/http:/besacenter.org/the-syrian-pipeline-game-how-turkeys-plans-affect-israels-regional-ambitions/^[90]

Integration into the Arab Energy Network

According to a report from the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Turkey could try to continue integrating Syria’s electric grid into the currently stalled “EIJLLPST Interconnection,” a broader Arab-Asian-European electricity network.https://web.archive.org/web/20220120124113/https:/documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/415281468059650302/pdf/ACS71240ESW0WH0I0and0II000Final0PDF.pdf^[91] This would connect Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Palestine, and Syria to Turkey’s electricity grid, positioning Turkey as a regional hub for electricity transmission between the Middle East, Asia, and Europe.https://web.archive.org/web/20250314174107/https:/ncmes.org/4066/^[92] For Syria specifically, this would allow increased access to electricity through the new cross-border connections.https://web.archive.org/web/20220120124113/https:/documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/415281468059650302/pdf/ACS71240ESW0WH0I0and0II000Final0PDF.pdf^[93]

Arab Gas Pipeline Revival

The Arab Gas Pipeline, currently links Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. It was originally intended to extend to Turkey, allowing Egyptian and potentially Israeli gas to flow into European markets through Turkey, as seen in Figure 14. According to an Israeli think tank, extension plans were abandoned in 2009 due to financial disputes and Egypt’s declining gas exports.http://besacenter.org/the-syrian-pipeline-game-how-turkeys-plans-affect-israels-regional-ambitions/^[94] International think tanks have speculated that this pipeline could be a part of Turkey’s broader energy transit strategy.https://web.archive.org/web/20250224084325/http:/besacenter.org/the-syrian-pipeline-game-how-turkeys-plans-affect-israels-regional-ambitions/^[95]https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/12/turkeys-energy-hub-ambitions-have-new-momentum-after-assads-fall^[96]

Re-establishing the oil pipeline from Syria to Iraq

In the past, Iraq has considered revitalizing the currently defunct Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline to Syria as an alternative to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline.https://web.archive.org/web/20250117074116/https:/www.agbi.com/analysis/oil-and-gas/2025/01/assads-fall-spurs-calls-to-revive-iraq-syria-oil-pipeline/^[97] In October 2023, Iraqi officials claimed that discussions regarding the reconstruction of the 850-kilometer pipeline took place during a two-day meeting between the state-owned North Oil Company in Kirkuk and several local oil companies, according to a London-based news platform.Ibid^[98] A spokesperson for the Iraqi prime minister claimed that the pipeline would require continued negotiations between the two countries.Ibid^[99]https://web.archive.org/web/20250126120436/https:/drawmedia.net/en/page_detail?smart-id=16184^[100] According to business news, on April 25, 2025, an Iraqi delegation met with the Syrian president. They discussed the technical, financial, and security implications of working to restore the Kirkus-Baniyas pipeline. This project would provide Iraq with access to the Mediterranean through Syria, avoiding reliance on the current connection to Turkey’s Ceyhan port, but costs might exceed USD $8 billion.https://pgjonline.com/news/2025/april/syrian-president-iraqi-delegation-discuss-restoring-oil-pipeline^[101]https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2025/04/26/syrian-president-and-iraqi-delegation-discuss-restoring-oil-pipeline-via-syria^[102]

Integration with this pipeline would further increase Syria’s access to oil, allowing them to fuel their power plants.

Azerbaijan’s interest in gas and oil fields

In January 2025, the CEO of SOCAR Turkey publicly signaled the company’s interest in Syria, citing the possibility of increased energy demand with stability growth, as reported by Azerbaijani national news.https://en.apa.az/energy-and-industry/socar-turkiye-says-ready-to-participate-in-syrias-energy-supply-457295^[103]Ibid^[104] SOCAR (State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic) is Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil and gas company, and SOCAR Turkey is its wholly owned subsidiary based in Turkey, according to regional news and the company’s 2022 Annual Report.https://www.socar.com.tr/uploads/raporlar/SOCAR_Turkey_Annual_Report_2022.pdf^[105]https://caspianbarrel.org/en/2021/09/socar-becomes-100-owner-of-socar-turkiye-enerji-again/^[106] In April 2025, a meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Syria discussed the possibility of increased involvement in Syria’s northeastern oil and gas fields. SOCAR would carry out the development, according to regional news.https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/syria-seeks-azerbaijans-help-develop-oil-and-gas-fields^[107]

Increased Saudi investment

On February 25, 2025, Saudi Arabia announced that it would begin a new shipping service between Jeddah and Latakia, signaling increasing commercial shipping activity under the new Syrian government as well as increased cooperation between the two countries, according to independent Syrian reporting.https://www.enabbaladi.net/741197/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%B9%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%AD%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7/^[108] Additional oil imports could increase the capacity for Syria’s oil-fueled power plants to produce electricity.

According to Syrian state media, on April 28, 2025, Syria’s Minister of Energy, Mohammed al Bashir met with the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to Syria, Dr. Faisal al-Muifel, in Damascus. Discussion revolved around increasing cooperation in the energy sector and investing in projects that supported the reconstruction of Syria’s electricity infrastructure.https://www.sana.sy/en/?p=353814^[109]

Future 2: Decreases in the new government’s stability hinder power grid progress and foreign investment opportunities.

Syria’s energy infrastructure requires intensive repairs, and a stable government committed to the cause. Failure to achieve full internal sovereignty may further degrade the state of Syria’s grid.

Threat of ISIS 

ISIS is currently reorganizing in Syria’s eastern desert, making use of weapons caches left behind by pro-Assad forces, according to VOA.https://web.archive.org/web/20250309002758/https:/www.voanews.com/a/possible-kurdish-turkish-peace-could-be-bad-news-for-islamic-state-/7991152.html^[110] In the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, the U.S. Intelligence Community assessed that the fall of Assad's government could lead to ISIS regrouping and taking advantage of instability in Syria.https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf^[111] During the overthrow of Assad’s government, experienced ISIS fighters also reportedly escaped from Syrian camps, according to the UN.https://docs.un.org/en/S/2025/71/Rev.1^[112]

The group has previously seized oil fields and power plants in Syria and Iraq, using illicit energy sales to finance operations. ISIS has a history of destroying energy infrastructure.https://web.archive.org/web/20250223055346/https:/www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2017/603835/EXPO_IDA(2017)603835_EN.pdf^[113] In 2021, VOA reported that they bombed a pipeline that supplied gas to Deir Ali and Tishreen power plants.https://web.archive.org/web/20250310223753/https:/www.voanews.com/a/islamic-state-claims-syria-gas-pipeline-attack-/6234229.html^[114]

Continued Fragmentation

If the new government fails to quell violence and unrest from resistance groups, delays could occur in key energy infrastructure repairs, and the potential for further damage would increase. For instance, according to various news sources, Assad loyalists launched an attack on Syria’s coast on March 9, 2025https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-hts-alawites-sunnis-clashes-228a2c6c6378e0eaf4bd8ba058310fdf^[115] that targeted the Tartus power plant.https://web.archive.org/web/20250314180936/https:/caliber.az/en/post/syria-clashes-erupt-at-power-station-in-baniyas-as-pro-assad-militants-target-energy-infrastructure^[116]https://web.archive.org/web/20250314180856/https:/www.ynetnews.com/article/bjdfrgojjx^[117] Electricity in Latakia was cut as a result of damage to a 230-kV transmission line.https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/monitor-more-than-1000-dead-in-syrias-coast-amid-power-outage/ar-AA1AwWhu^[118]

Conclusion

Iran’s decreased presence in Syria allows other countries to step in and increase their regional leverage. Since the fall of the Assad government, progress on Iranian-backed energy infrastructure projects in Syria have halted. Satellite imagery shows no progress made in construction or repairs at the Latakia and Aleppo power plants, and the flow of Iranian oil into Syria has stopped. It is important to note that satellite imagery alone cannot completely rule out the presence of Iranian engineers. More substantial OSINT reporting on current events at both the Latakia and Aleppo power plants would provide higher confidence in this assessment.

Tracking foreign involvement offers an early indicator of which countries are aligning with the new government. Jordan, Turkey, Qatar, Russia, and Saudi Arabia have signaled interest to increase their involvement in Syria’s energy sector. While Jordan has contributed to infrastructure repairs at the Nasib Border Crossing, many of the proposed projects from Qatar and Turkey have yet to commence. More detailed reporting on planned locations and timelines for proposed projects would allow for closer monitoring with satellite imagery and higher confidence on their status.

The condition of Syria’s electricity grid is an important measure of the new government’s ability to provide basic services essential for government stability. Charted nighttime light imagery shows an overall decrease in average radiance in Damascus and Aleppo following the government takeover, suggesting the grid has not yet improved. It is important to acknowledge that this imagery is subject to missing data, spans only a seven-month period, and covers just two of Syria’s cities. More complete data, comparisons to imagery from previous years, and analysis of additional areas throughout the country would increase confidence.

Disclaimer: This topic is rapidly developing.

Contributor's Note

This project was made possible through contributions from undergraduate researchers (listed alphabetically): Jack Chrismon, Alayna Parlevliet, Andrew Paumen, Isabella Sherwood, Alexander Suster, David Tran, and Catherine Word.