Summary

This snapshot analyzes the impact of the May 2025 drone attack by the Rapid Support Forces on infrastructure in the vicinity of Russia's planned naval base. We assess that Russia is unlikely to realize their plans for a naval base near Port Sudan in the next 6 to 12 months due to the continued instability in the region.

Background

Russia's Planned Naval Base

In November 2020, the Russian government approved Moscow's first substantial military foothold in Africa since the fall of the Soviet Union, near Flamingo Bay (Marsa Gwiyai) in Sudan (see Figure 1).Chernenko and Dudina. 'Red Sea-sailors,' Kommersant, November 12, 2020. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4567730^[1]Osborn, Andrew. “Putin, extending Russian footprint, approves new naval facility in Sudan,” Reuters, November 16, 2020. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/putin-extending-russian-footprint-approves-new-naval-facility-sudan-2020-11-16/^[2] The planned base would host up to 300 military and civilian personnel and would have the capability to moor up to four ships at once for repair and resupply.Osborn, Andrew. “Putin, extending Russian footprint, approves new naval facility in Sudan,” Reuters, November 16, 2020. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/putin-extending-russian-footprint-approves-new-naval-facility-sudan-2020-11-16/^[2]

Map_Russian Planned Naval Base — Figure 1. Site of Russia's planned naval base and the Sudanese Armed Forces naval base near Flamingo Bay. Source: https://bit.ly/4qkehHZ

In April 2021, the agreement was suspended by the new Sudanese government, and the initial Russian radar and construction equipment shipments were halted.“Sudan suspends Red Sea Russian naval facility,” Sudan Tribune, April 29, 2021. https://sudantribune.com/article/67602^[3] Since April 2023, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have been in a conflict for state control with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a powerful paramilitary group formerly aligned with the state's security apparatus.Volle, Adam. “Rapid Support Forces,” Britannica, December 22, 2025. https://www.britannica.com/topic/Rapid-Support-Forces^[4] As of late 2024, the Sudanese government's lack of a legislative body has prevented the required ratification from taking place, so the plan remains on hold.“Sudan: Freedom in the World 2025,” Freedom House, https://freedomhouse.org/country/sudan/freedom-world/2025^[5]

In February 2025, Sudan's Foreign Minister reaffirmed the government's interest in the plan, stating that there were “no obstacles” after talks with the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov.“Russian Red Sea base deal still on the table, Sudanese FM says,” Reuters, February 12, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-sudan-agree-red-sea-naval-base-sudanese-foreign-minister-says-2025-02-12/^[6]

Discussion

Damage in the Planned Site Area

In May 2025, the RSF launched a drone attack on Port Sudan.“Sudan: What is the Flamingo naval base, under attack by RSF forces?,” The New Arab, May 8, 2025. https://www.newarab.com/news/sudan-what-flamingo-naval-base-attacked-rsf-forces^[7] These attacks impacted multiple civilian and military targets, including the SAF’s naval base at Flamingo Bay, which is located near the area of Russia’s planned naval base (see Figure 1).“Sudan: What is the Flamingo naval base, under attack by RSF forces?,” The New Arab, May 8, 2025. https://www.newarab.com/news/sudan-what-flamingo-naval-base-attacked-rsf-forces^[7] Compared to imagery prior to the attack (see Figure 2), commercial satellite imagery of the SAF's naval base after the attacks illustrates two fully destroyed buildings and a third with a hole in its roof (see Figure 3). This location includes a slipway, which can be used to launch or haul ships. The slipway appears to be undamaged and in operation.

Sudanese Armed Forces Naval Base prior to attack — Figure 2. SAF naval base at Flamingo Bay near the area of Russia's planned naval base in March 2025, prior to drone attacks. © 2025 Maxar

Sudanese Armed Forces Naval Base post attack — Figure 3. SAF naval base at Flamingo Bay near the area of Russia's planned naval base, following May 2025 drone attacks. © 2025 Maxar

Minimal Repairs

Extensive damage remains visible at the SAF naval base in the most recent available imagery from 5 November 2025 (see Figure 4). Comparison of imagery from 4 August 2025 and 5 November 2025 shows there have been only minor efforts to repair the damage, including the rebuilding of a wall and slight clearing of debris. Continued presence of ships on the slipway (see Figures 3 & 4) indicates that it remains operational.

Sudanese Armed Forces Naval Base Nov 2025 — Figure 4. Most recent available imagery of the SAF naval base at Flamingo Bay near the area of Russia's planned naval base. © 2025 Maxar

Conclusion

Russia remains unlikely to pursue this investment unless the area becomes more secure. In early November 2025, the Russian Ambassador to Sudan, Andrey Chernovol, said the plans for Russia’s naval base were suspended due to Sudan’s military conflict.Okebiorun, Olamilekan. “Russia faces setback as its long-planned first African naval base stalls,” Business Insider Africa, November 12, 2025. https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/lifestyle/russia-faces-setback-as-its-long-planned-first-african-naval-base-stalls/wk0qcxp^[8]

Chernovol solidified his stance in early December 2025, after Western media alleged that the deal was recently revived,Faucon, Benoit. “Sudan Offers Russia Its First Naval Base in Africa,” The Wall Street Journal, December 1, 2025. https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/sudan-offers-russia-its-first-naval-base-in-africa-0748e810^[9] saying that progress remains stagnant and the agreement has yet to be ratified.“No progress on Russian naval base issue in Sudan, ambassador says,” TASS, December 2, 2025. https://tass.com/politics/2052213^[10]

Look Ahead

Look for significant rebuilding of damaged infrastructure at the SAF naval base in Flamingo Bay indicating that the Sudanese government deems the threat of another attack to be insignificant. Additionally, look for open-source reporting on renewed interest from Russia, as signs of stability may lead to a reopening of dialogue on the installment of the proposed naval base.